Jeddeloh vs Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
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DWDLDThe score model made a Jeddeloh win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeddeloh 1.70 – 1.65 Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeddeloh win | 39.0% | 51.4% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 23.9% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Lubeck win | 37.1% | 24.8% | +12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | 66.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.0% | 47.7% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | 66.5% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.6% | 47.4% | +4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeddeloh 47.9 / Lubeck 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.