Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-16 · 12:00 CET
LWLWL
WLLLLThe score model made a Hamburger SV II win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamburger SV II 1.88 – 1.36 St. Pauli II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV II win | 49.4% | 40.0% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| St. Pauli II win | 27.4% | 34.6% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 66.0% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 47.4% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 67.9% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 45.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hamburger SV II 46.9 / St. Pauli II 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.