Drochtersen/Assel vs Emden
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-15 · 19:30 CET
WDWWL
WWLLDThe score model made a Drochtersen/Assel win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 8:2 (HT 4:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drochtersen/Assel 2.25 – 1.41 Emden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drochtersen/Assel win | 56.0% | 50.3% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 24.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Emden win | 23.3% | 25.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | 66.8% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.7% | 48.0% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.0% | 66.6% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 46.4% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drochtersen/Assel 46 / Emden 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Drochtersen/Assel vs Emden in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.