St. Pauli II vs Norderstedt
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
WLLLL
LDLWLThe score model made a St. Pauli II win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Pauli II 1.76 – 1.63 Norderstedt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli II win | 41.0% | 32.9% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.4% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Norderstedt win | 35.6% | 42.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 66.0% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.9% | 46.9% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 67.5% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.9% | 46.1% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Pauli II 45.3 / Norderstedt 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Pauli II vs Norderstedt in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.