SC Weiche-08 vs Hamburger SV II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-11 · 19:00 CET
LWWWW
LLWLWThe score model made an SC Weiche-08 win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SC Weiche-08 1.91 – 1.52 Hamburger SV II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Weiche-08 win | 46.6% | 60.5% | -13.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 21.1% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Hamburger SV II win | 30.4% | 18.4% | +12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | 70.4% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 51.6% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 66.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 49.1% | -5.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SC Weiche-08 46.1 / Hamburger SV II 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.