Schoningen vs VfB Oldenburg
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-06 · 14:00 CET
WLDLL
WWLLWThe score model made a VfB Oldenburg win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 79%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Schoningen 1.49 – 2.69 VfB Oldenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schoningen win | 19.3% | 22.6% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.0% | 22.4% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| VfB Oldenburg win | 62.7% | 55.0% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.7% | 67.0% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60.0% | 47.0% | +13.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 72.5% | 65.3% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Schoningen 27 / VfB Oldenburg 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.