Werder Bremen II vs Phonix Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-06 · 14:00 CET
LWWLD
WWWLWThe score model made a Phonix Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Werder Bremen II 1.41 – 1.84 Phonix Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen II win | 29.0% | 18.7% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 21.3% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Phonix Lubeck win | 47.3% | 60.0% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 66.1% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 46.6% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | 62.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 45.6% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Werder Bremen II 40.7 / Phonix Lubeck 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.