Mannheim vs RW Essen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-16 · 19:00 CET
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WDDWLThe score model made an RW Essen win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mannheim 1.60 – 1.73 RW Essen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mannheim win | 35.3% | 33.0% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| RW Essen win | 40.8% | 41.2% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 61.3% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.5% | 41.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | 63.6% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 42.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mannheim 48.4 / RW Essen 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mannheim vs RW Essen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.