Ingolstadt vs Hoffenheim II
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-16 · 19:00 CET
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WWLLWThe score model made an Ingolstadt win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ingolstadt 2.21 – 1.53 Hoffenheim II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 52.8% | 43.8% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 25.0% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Hoffenheim II win | 26.0% | 31.2% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | 66.0% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.4% | 46.5% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | 67.5% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 58.1% | 45.8% | +12.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ingolstadt 48.4 / Hoffenheim II 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ingolstadt vs Hoffenheim II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.