Hansa Rostock vs Stuttgart II
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-16 · 19:00 CET
WDWLL
LDDWWThe score model made a Hansa Rostock win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 2.27 – 1.23 Stuttgart II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 60.3% | 59.7% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 21.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Stuttgart II win | 19.2% | 19.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 68.7% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% | 49.1% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 64.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 47.6% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hansa Rostock 40.1 / Stuttgart II 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hansa Rostock vs Stuttgart II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.