Duisburg vs TSV Havelse
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-15 · 19:00 CET
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LLLDDThe score model made a Duisburg win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Duisburg 2.68 – 1.26 TSV Havelse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 67.1% | 72.0% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.4% | 17.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| TSV Havelse win | 15.5% | 10.7% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.3% | 66.9% | +8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55.4% | 46.9% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 54.1% | +13.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 46.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Duisburg 36.7 / TSV Havelse 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Duisburg vs TSV Havelse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.