Alemannia Aachen vs Regensburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-12 · 16:30 CET
LWLLW
LDWDDThe score model made an Alemannia Aachen win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 1.95 – 1.13 Regensburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen win | 55.6% | 51.5% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.0% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Regensburg win | 21.0% | 24.6% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 63.4% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 43.7% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 63.3% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 44.2% | -10.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alemannia Aachen 39.4 / Regensburg 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.