Viktoria Koln vs Hansa Rostock
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-11 · 19:00 CET
WWWWD
LWDWLThe score model made a Hansa Rostock win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viktoria Koln 1.44 – 1.61 Hansa Rostock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoria Koln win | 33.5% | 33.3% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Hansa Rostock win | 40.9% | 41.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 61.5% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 41.5% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 63.7% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 42.7% | -3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viktoria Koln 47.8 / Hansa Rostock 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.