RW Essen vs Viktoria Koln
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
WWDDW
WWWWDThe score model made an RW Essen win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RW Essen 1.80 – 1.40 Viktoria Koln.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW Essen win | 46.2% | 50.3% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 23.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Viktoria Koln win | 29.3% | 26.3% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 62.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.7% | 42.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 63.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.2% | 43.2% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RW Essen 47.5 / Viktoria Koln 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.