RW Essen vs Viktoria Koln
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
WWLWD
LDLWWThe score model makes an RW Essen win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 60.7% vs 56.7% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RW Essen 1.80 – 1.39 Viktoria Koln.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RW Essen win | 46.4% | 49.2% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 22.6% | +1.9% |
| Viktoria Koln win | 29.1% | 28.2% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 63.5% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | 42.6% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 63.8% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 43.3% | -4.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RW Essen 48 / Viktoria Koln 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.