Regensburg vs Duisburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
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DDWWWThe score model makes a Duisburg win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.3% vs 59.9% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Regensburg 1.41 – 1.52 Duisburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 34.4% | 28.0% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.3% | +1.0% |
| Duisburg win | 39.3% | 46.7% | -7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 58.8% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 38.2% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 61.0% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 40.1% | -6.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Regensburg 33.2 / Duisburg 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.