Hansa Rostock vs Wehen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
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LWLLDThe score model makes a Hansa Rostock win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hansa Rostock win — 57.0% vs 54.6% implied (+2.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 2.02 – 1.14 Wehen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 57.0% | 54.6% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.3% | -0.5% |
| Wehen win | 20.2% | 22.1% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 59.9% | +1.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | 39.0% | -0.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 59.4% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 40.8% | -1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hansa Rostock 39.3 / Wehen 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.