Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
LWLLL
WDLWLThe score model made an Ingolstadt win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ingolstadt 1.70 – 1.54 Alemannia Aachen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 41.1% | 41.4% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Alemannia Aachen win | 34.2% | 32.9% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 60.4% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 40.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 63.0% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 41.8% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ingolstadt 47.5 / Alemannia Aachen 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.