Magdeburg vs Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-12 · 13:00 CET
WLWDW
WLWDWThe score model made a Magdeburg win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Magdeburg 1.66 – 1.50 Kaiserslautern.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 41.5% | 44.7% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Kaiserslautern win | 34.4% | 29.8% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 62.1% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | 41.9% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 64.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 41.8% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Magdeburg 43.1 / Kaiserslautern 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.