Bochum vs Greuther Furth
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-12 · 13:00 CET
WDLLL
LDDLWThe score model made a Bochum win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bochum 1.69 – 1.10 Greuther Furth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 50.8% | 51.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.4% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Greuther Furth win | 24.4% | 24.1% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 60.3% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 39.3% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 60.6% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 40.8% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bochum 25 / Greuther Furth 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bochum vs Greuther Furth in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.