Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-11 · 18:30 CET
LLWLW
LDLDWThe score model made a Darmstadt win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Darmstadt 1.74 – 1.35 Arminia Bielefeld.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 46.5% | 31.4% | +15.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Arminia Bielefeld win | 29.5% | 42.3% | -12.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 58.8% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 37.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 62.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 40.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Darmstadt 37.9 / Arminia Bielefeld 27.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.