Hertha Berlin vs Magdeburg
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-06 · 13:30 CET
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WLWDWThe score model made a Hertha Berlin win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hertha Berlin 1.95 – 1.40 Magdeburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha Berlin win | 50.1% | 49.3% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Magdeburg win | 27.3% | 26.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 66.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% | 47.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 67.1% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.7% | 45.4% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hertha Berlin 40.4 / Magdeburg 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.