SG Dynamo Dresden vs Bochum
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 20:30 CET
LLDLD
LWDLLThe score model made an SG Dynamo Dresden win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SG Dynamo Dresden 1.52 – 1.24 Bochum.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Dynamo Dresden win | 43.3% | 42.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Bochum win | 30.7% | 30.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 54.1% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 33.7% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 57.9% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 37.1% | +3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SG Dynamo Dresden 24.4 / Bochum 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.