Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 13:00 CET
WWLWD
LLWLWThe score model made a Kaiserslautern win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kaiserslautern 1.56 – 1.32 Darmstadt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 42.7% | 43.0% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.1% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Darmstadt win | 31.8% | 29.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 55.2% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 34.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 59.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 38.0% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kaiserslautern 42.7 / Darmstadt 37.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.