Hannover vs Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-04 · 18:30 CET
DDLLW
DLWDLThe score model makes a Hannover win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hannover 1.93 – 1.26 Karlsruher SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 52.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 22.9% | — | — |
| Karlsruher SC win | 24.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.8% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hannover 43.2 / Karlsruher SC 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.