Dunkerque vs St Etienne
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-12 · 20:00 CET
DWLLW
WLDWWThe score model made a St Etienne win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.31 – 1.80 St Etienne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 27.9% | 20.1% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.4% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| St Etienne win | 48.7% | 56.6% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 56.1% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 35.0% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | 55.7% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.8% | 38.4% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunkerque 42.2 / St Etienne 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dunkerque vs St Etienne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.