The season in numbers
Blindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Nantes produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 37.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Red Star – Metz2026-09-14 18:45
Away win48.3%vs 38.2%▲ +10.1%Clermont – Boulogne2026-09-11 18:00
Under 2.5 ✓68.3%vs 58.5%▲ +9.8%Nancy – Reims2026-09-11 18:00
Away win ✓52.3%vs 45.5%▲ +6.9%Guingamp – Annecy2026-09-12 12:00
Away win ✓36.6%vs 31.2%▲ +5.4%Dunkerque – St Etienne2026-09-12 18:00
Home win ✓27.9%vs 24.1%▲ +3.8%Rodez – Grenoble2026-09-11 18:00
Under 1.5 HT70.9%vs 69.0%▲ +1.9%Montpellier – Pau FC2026-09-11 18:00
Under 2.554.8%vs 53.5%▲ +1.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Star– Metz | 2026-09-14 | 18:45 | Away win | 48.3% | 38.2% | ▲ +10.1% | 2.62 | |
| 2 | Clermont– Boulogne | 2026-09-11 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 68.3% | 58.5% | ▲ +9.8% | 1.71 | |
| 3 | Nancy– Reims | 2026-09-11 | 18:00 | Away win ✓ | 52.3% | 45.5% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.20 | |
| 4 | Guingamp– Annecy | 2026-09-12 | 12:00 | Away win ✓ | 36.6% | 31.2% | ▲ +5.4% | 3.21 | |
| 5 | Dunkerque– St Etienne | 2026-09-12 | 18:00 | Home win ✓ | 27.9% | 24.1% | ▲ +3.8% | 4.15 | |
| 6 | Rodez– Grenoble | 2026-09-11 | 18:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 70.9% | 69.0% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.45 | |
| 7 | Montpellier– Pau FC | 2026-09-11 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 53.5% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.87 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Ligue 2 schedule 10,000 times a day. St Etienne win the 2026-2027 title in 65% of them, projecting ~69 points; Metz are next at 20%. At the other end, Nantes finish in the bottom three in 67% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 15 | 69 | 61–78 | 65% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Metz | 9 | 63 | 54–71 | 20% | 87% | <1% |
| 3 | Reims | 9 | 60 | 51–69 | 11% | 76% | <1% |
| 4 | Annecy | 10 | 54 | 46–63 | 2% | 44% | <1% |
| 5 | Montpellier | 8 | 53 | 44–62 | 1% | 35% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Laval | 4 | 37 | 29–46 | — | <1% | 37% |
| 17 | Boulogne | 4 | 36 | 27–44 | <1% | <1% | 44% |
| 18 | Nantes | 4 | 32 | 24–41 | — | <1% | 67% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 261 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/france/ligue-2/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Ligue 2 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/france/ligue-2">Ligue 2 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Ligue 2 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 15 | 10.1 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | Annecy | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | |
| 3 | Reims | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | |
| 4 | Metz | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | |
| 5 | Montpellier | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Grenoble | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | |
| 17 | Laval | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | |
| 18 | Dijon | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+















Laval