Ligue 2 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
France · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: St Etienne (72%), Reims (13%), Montpellier (9%). 70 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Etienne | 9 | 22 | 7061–78 | 72% | 48 from 25 (1.92/game) |
| Reims | 9 | 17 | 6153–69 | 13% | 53 from 25 (2.12/game) |
| Montpellier | 9 | 18 | 6052–68 | 9% | 52 from 25 (2.08/game) |
| Metz | 9 | 13 | 5648–64 | 3% | 57 from 25 (2.28/game) |
Below 1%: Red Star, Annecy, Dijon, Nancy, Dunkerque, Pau FC, Rodez, Sochaux, Guingamp, Grenoble, Boulogne, Clermont, Nantes, Laval.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 225 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).