Red Star vs Nancy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-11-02 · 20:45 CET
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LWWWWThe score model makes a Red Star win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.4% vs 72.5% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Red Star 1.41 – 1.01 Nancy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Star win | 45.8% | 41.6% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.8% | -0.5% |
| Nancy win | 26.9% | 30.6% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 47.6% | -4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 27.5% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 53.1% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 32.4% | -4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Red Star 38.1 / Nancy 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Red Star vs Nancy in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.