Rodez vs Grenoble
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
DLLLL
LWDLLThe score model made a Rodez win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rodez 1.62 – 1.09 Grenoble.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez win | 49.4% | 49.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Grenoble win | 25.3% | 23.2% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 53.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 33.4% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 56.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 36.2% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rodez 45.6 / Grenoble 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.