Montpellier vs Pau FC
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
DLWDW
DLWWWThe score model made a Montpellier win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montpellier 1.61 – 0.87 Pau FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 54.5% | 51.6% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.6% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Pau FC win | 20.1% | 21.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 49.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 29.0% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 51.9% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 33.6% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Montpellier 25.7 / Pau FC 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.