St Etienne vs Montpellier
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-05 · 20:00 CET
WWLDW
DLWDWThe score model made a St Etienne win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Etienne 1.30 – 0.91 Montpellier.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Etienne win | 45.1% | 60.2% | -15.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 22.8% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Montpellier win | 25.8% | 17.0% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 57.0% | -19.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 35.9% | -17.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 54.5% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 39.4% | -8.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St Etienne 33.6 / Montpellier 25 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.