Metz vs Rodez
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
DDWLD
DLLLLThe score model made a Metz win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Metz 1.77 – 1.14 Rodez.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 51.8% | 46.0% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 27.0% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Rodez win | 24.3% | 26.9% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 54.7% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 33.9% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 58.3% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 37.2% | -5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Metz 17.2 / Rodez 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.