Laval vs Red Star
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
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DLWWWThe score model made a Red Star win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Laval 1.12 – 1.18 Red Star.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laval win | 34.2% | 30.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 29.4% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Red Star win | 37.1% | 39.9% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 46.7% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 26.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 52.8% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 32.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Laval 46 / Red Star 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.