Dunkerque vs Clermont
Ligue 2, France · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
LDWLL
DDDDDThe score model made a Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.55 – 1.02 Clermont.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 49.5% | 47.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 28.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Clermont win | 24.7% | 24.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 49.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 29.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 53.0% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 34.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunkerque 41.8 / Clermont 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.