Inter Turku vs VPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-14 · 17:00 CET
WWDWL
LLLWLThe score model made an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter Turku 1.47 – 0.85 VPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku win | 51.3% | 55.8% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 25.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| VPS win | 21.5% | 18.3% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 47.4% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 26.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 48.5% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 33.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inter Turku 35.8 / VPS 36 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inter Turku vs VPS in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.