Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +11.4% at market prices across 153 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
SJK produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Inter Turku – Gnistan2026-11-02 16:00Away winModel 19.4%Implied 15.3%▲ +4.1%- KuPS – Gnistan2026-10-29 17:00Away winModel 19.6%Implied 16.1%▲ +3.5%
- Inter Turku – HJK2026-10-29 16:00Under 1.5 HTModel 72.8%Implied 69.4%▲ +3.4%
- AC Oulu – VPS2026-10-28 16:00Under 2.5Model 53.1%Implied 53.2%-0.1%
- AC Oulu – KuPS2026-11-01 13:00Home winModel 25.1%Implied 26.3%-1.3%
- VPS – HJK2026-11-02 16:00Away winModel 50.5%Implied 52.6%-2.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter Turku– Gnistan | 2026-11-02 | 16:00 | Away win | 19.4% | 15.3% | ▲ +4.1% | 6.55 |
| 2 |  KuPS–Gnistan | 2026-10-29 | 17:00 | Away win | 19.6% | 16.1% | ▲ +3.5% | 6.22 |
| 3 | Inter Turku– HJK | 2026-10-29 | 16:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 72.8% | 69.4% | ▲ +3.4% | 1.44 |
| 4 |  AC Oulu– VPS | 2026-10-28 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 53.2% | -0.1% | 1.88 |
| 5 | AC Oulu–KuPS | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Home win | 25.1% | 26.3% | -1.3% | 3.80 |
| 6 | VPS–HJK | 2026-11-02 | 16:00 | Away win | 50.5% | 52.6% | -2.1% | 1.90 |
Add Veikkausliiga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Veikkausliiga schedule 10,000 times a day. Inter Turku win the 2026 title in 54% of them, projecting ~60 points; HJK are next at 25%. At the other end, SJK finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 55 | 60 | 57–62 | 54% | >99% | — |
| 2 | HJK | 52 | 57 | 55–61 | 25% | >99% | — |
| 3 | KuPS | 52 | 57 | 54–61 | 20% | >99% | — |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 43 | 46 | 43–49 | — | 49% | — |
| 5 | Gnistan | 42 | 45 | 43–48 | — | 41% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 |  SJK | 19 | 19 | 19–19 | — | — | >99% |
| 11 |  Jaro | 15 | 15 | 15–15 | — | — | >99% |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 14 | 14 | 14–14 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 9 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Veikkausliiga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 55 | 51.2 | +3.8 | |
| 2 | HJK | 52 | 52.2 | -0.2 | |
| 3 | KuPS | 52 | 49.1 | +2.9 | |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 43 | 39.3 | +3.7 | |
| 5 | Gnistan | 42 | 35.4 | +6.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 30.0 | -11.0 | underperformed expectations |
| 11 | Jaro | 15 | 22.2 | -7.2 | |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 14 | 16.6 | -2.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+