Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +13.5% at market prices across 142 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
SJK produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
TPS – Jaro2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 64.6%Implied 48.8%▲ +15.8%- Mariehamn – Ilves2026-10-10 16:00Away winModel 59.0%Implied 45.9%▲ +13.2%
- SJK – Lahti2026-10-09 15:00Under 2.5Model 56.8%Implied 47.6%▲ +9.2%
- VPS – Gnistan2026-10-12 15:00Away winModel 32.3%Implied 28.8%▲ +3.5%
- AC Oulu – HJK2026-10-12 16:00Away winModel 53.9%Implied 50.5%▲ +3.4%
- HJK – VPS2026-10-08 15:00Away winModel 20.9%Implied 19.0%▲ +1.9%
- KuPS – AC Oulu2026-10-08 16:00Over 1.5 HTModel 37.5%Implied 36.2%▲ +1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TPS– Jaro | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 64.6% | 48.8% | ▲ +15.8% | 2.05 |
| 2 |  Mariehamn– Ilves | 2026-10-10 | 16:00 | Away win | 59.0% | 45.9% | ▲ +13.2% | 2.18 |
| 3 |  SJK– Lahti | 2026-10-09 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 47.6% | ▲ +9.2% | 2.10 |
| 4 |  VPS– Gnistan | 2026-10-12 | 15:00 | Away win | 32.3% | 28.8% | ▲ +3.5% | 3.47 |
| 5 |  AC Oulu– HJK | 2026-10-12 | 16:00 | Away win | 53.9% | 50.5% | ▲ +3.4% | 1.98 |
| 6 | HJK–VPS | 2026-10-08 | 15:00 | Away win | 20.9% | 19.0% | ▲ +1.9% | 5.25 |
| 7 |  KuPS–AC Oulu | 2026-10-08 | 16:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 37.5% | 36.2% | ▲ +1.2% | 2.76 |
Add Veikkausliiga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Veikkausliiga schedule 10,000 times a day. KuPS win the 2026 title in 56% of them, projecting ~60 points; Inter Turku are next at 38%. At the other end, Jaro finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: KuPS's title chance up 4 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 48 | 60 | 55–64 | ▲56% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 49 | 59 | 55–63 | ▼38% | >99% | — |
| 3 | HJK | 42 | 54 | 50–58 | 6% | 98% | — |
| 4 | Gnistan | 42 | 49 | 46–53 | <1% | 82% | — |
| 5 | VPS | 36 | 44 | 40–49 | — | 18% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 22 | 19–25 | — | — | 99% |
| 11 | Jaro | 15 | 17 | 15–19 | — | — | >99% |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 14 | 16 | 14–18 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 26 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Veikkausliiga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 49 | 45.3 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | KuPS | 48 | 42.9 | +5.1 | |
| 3 | HJK | 42 | 44.4 | -2.4 | |
| 4 | Gnistan | 42 | 31.9 | +10.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | VPS | 36 | 34.5 | +1.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 30.0 | -11.0 | underperformed expectations |
| 11 | Jaro | 15 | 22.2 | -7.2 | |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 14 | 16.6 | -2.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+