The season in numbers
Blindly backing under 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
SJK produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Mariehamn – TPS2026-09-12 14:00Away win55.1%vs 38.6%▲ +16.5%- Ilves – Lahti2026-09-12 16:00FT U3.574.6%vs 64.9%▲ +9.7%
- AC Oulu – Gnistan2026-09-12 16:00Away win41.0%vs 33.7%▲ +7.3%
- Inter Turku – VPS2026-09-14 15:00Under 2.559.4%vs 54.6%▲ +4.8%
- Jaro – SJK2026-09-12 16:00Away win51.5%vs 50.0%▲ +1.5%
- KuPS – HJK2026-09-13 12:00Away win31.1%vs 31.3%-0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mariehamn– TPS | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win | 55.1% | 38.6% | ▲ +16.5% | 2.59 | |
| 2 |  Ilves– Lahti | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 | 74.6% | 64.9% | ▲ +9.7% | 1.54 | |
| 3 |  AC Oulu– Gnistan | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | Away win | 41.0% | 33.7% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.97 | |
| 4 |  Inter Turku– VPS | 2026-09-14 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 54.6% | ▲ +4.8% | 1.83 | |
| 5 |  Jaro– SJK | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | Away win | 51.5% | 50.0% | ▲ +1.5% | 2.00 | |
| 6 |  KuPS– HJK | 2026-09-13 | 12:00 | Away win | 31.1% | 31.3% | -0.2% | 3.20 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Veikkausliiga schedule 10,000 times a day. KuPS win the 2026 title in 52% of them, projecting ~59 points; Inter Turku are next at 31%. At the other end, Mariehamn finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 44 | 59 | 54–63 | 52% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 42 | 57 | 52–62 | 31% | 99% | — |
| 3 | HJK | 40 | 55 | 50–60 | 16% | 96% | — |
| 4 | Gnistan | 37 | 48 | 43–53 | <1% | 57% | — |
| 5 | VPS | 36 | 47 | 42–52 | <1% | 42% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 26 | 22–29 | — | — | 91% |
| 11 | Jaro | 15 | 19 | 16–22 | — | — | >99% |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 14 | 17 | 15–21 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 39 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/finland/veikkausliiga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Veikkausliiga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/finland/veikkausliiga">Veikkausliiga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Veikkausliiga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 44 | 39.7 | +4.3 | |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 42 | 39.9 | +2.1 | |
| 3 | HJK | 40 | 41.3 | -1.3 | |
| 4 | Gnistan | 37 | 28.9 | +8.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | VPS | 36 | 32.8 | +3.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 30.0 | -11.0 | underperformed expectations |
| 11 | Jaro | 15 | 22.2 | -7.2 | |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 14 | 16.6 | -2.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+