Inter Turku vs Gnistan
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-11-02 · 17:00 CET
WDWLW
DDLLLThe score model makes an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gnistan win — 19.4% vs 14.0% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter Turku 1.67 – 0.86 Gnistan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku win | 56.6% | 65.6% | -9.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 20.4% | +3.6% |
| Gnistan win | 19.4% | 14.0% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inter Turku 38.8 / Gnistan 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inter Turku vs Gnistan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.