Veikkausliiga 2025 Performance vs Market

Regular phase only. Veikkausliiga splits into championship and relegation groups after round 22; those deciding rounds aren't in our dataset yet, so this is the table at the split — not the final standings, and first place here isn't necessarily the season's champion.

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	SJK	22	41	33.2	+7.8Outperforming ++	5	+2.7	+5.1	2:3 vs Ilves (+2.1)	2:3 vs VPS (-1.5)
2	KuPS	22	44	37.0	+7.0Outperforming ++	4	+7.4	-0.4	2:1 vs Inter Turku (+2.0)	1:0 vs Mariehamn (-2.0)
3	Ilves	22	45	40.5	+4.5Outperforming	3	+4.1	+0.3	0:3 vs KuPS (+1.7)	3:2 vs Mariehamn (-2.1)
4	Inter Turku	22	46	41.6	+4.4Outperforming	1	+3.1	+1.3	1:4 vs HJK (+1.7)	2:1 vs KuPS (-1.7)
5	Jaro	22	25	22.3	+2.7Outperforming	10	-3.8	+6.5	2:3 vs HJK (+2.5)	2:3 vs KTP (-1.7)
6	HJK	22	44	41.3	+2.7Outperforming	2	+0.0	+2.7	5:1 vs Ilves (+1.6)	2:3 vs Jaro (-2.3)
7	Mariehamn	22	21	18.6	+2.4Outperforming	12	+0.2	+2.2	3:2 vs Ilves (+2.4)	0:2 vs Jaro (-1.5)
8	Gnistan	22	28	29.0	-1.0On expectation	7	-1.0	0.0	0:1 vs HJK (+2.4)	1:2 vs Jaro (-1.9)
9	VPS	22	25	29.8	-4.8Underperforming	6	-3.8	-1.0	0:2 vs KuPS (+2.1)	1:2 vs Haka (-1.7)
10	KTP	22	14	20.2	-6.2Underperforming −−	11	-3.5	-2.8	2:3 vs Jaro (+2.0)	1:3 vs AC Oulu (-1.5)
11	AC Oulu	22	18	25.6	-7.6Underperforming −−	8	-3.7	-3.9	1:3 vs KTP (+1.7)	0:1 vs Mariehamn (-1.8)
12	Haka	22	16	25.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	9	-4.6	-4.5	1:2 vs VPS (+2.0)	0:1 vs Mariehamn (-1.8)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	SJK	22	41	33.2	+7.8Outperforming ++	5	+2.7	+5.1	2:3 vs Ilves (+2.1)	2:3 vs VPS (-1.5)
2	KuPS	22	44	37.0	+7.0Outperforming ++	4	+7.4	-0.4	2:1 vs Inter Turku (+2.0)	1:0 vs Mariehamn (-2.0)
3	Ilves	22	45	40.5	+4.5Outperforming	3	+4.1	+0.3	0:3 vs KuPS (+1.7)	3:2 vs Mariehamn (-2.1)
4	Inter Turku	22	46	41.6	+4.4Outperforming	1	+3.1	+1.3	1:4 vs HJK (+1.7)	2:1 vs KuPS (-1.7)
5	Jaro	22	25	22.3	+2.7Outperforming	10	-3.8	+6.5	2:3 vs HJK (+2.5)	2:3 vs KTP (-1.7)
6	HJK	22	44	41.3	+2.7Outperforming	2	+0.0	+2.7	5:1 vs Ilves (+1.6)	2:3 vs Jaro (-2.3)
7	Mariehamn	22	21	18.6	+2.4Outperforming	12	+0.2	+2.2	3:2 vs Ilves (+2.4)	0:2 vs Jaro (-1.5)
8	Gnistan	22	28	29.0	-1.0On expectation	7	-1.0	0.0	0:1 vs HJK (+2.4)	1:2 vs Jaro (-1.9)
9	VPS	22	25	29.8	-4.8Underperforming	6	-3.8	-1.0	0:2 vs KuPS (+2.1)	1:2 vs Haka (-1.7)
10	KTP	22	14	20.2	-6.2Underperforming −−	11	-3.5	-2.8	2:3 vs Jaro (+2.0)	1:3 vs AC Oulu (-1.5)
11	AC Oulu	22	18	25.6	-7.6Underperforming −−	8	-3.7	-3.9	1:3 vs KTP (+1.7)	0:1 vs Mariehamn (-1.8)
12	Haka	22	16	25.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	9	-4.6	-4.5	1:2 vs VPS (+2.0)	0:1 vs Mariehamn (-1.8)