VPS vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-11-02 · 17:00 CET
LLWLL
DWWWDThe score model makes an HJK win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HJK win — 50.5% vs 48.3% implied (+2.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.19 – 1.75 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 26.1% | 25.9% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.8% | -2.5% |
| HJK win | 50.5% | 48.3% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 38.9 / HJK 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open VPS vs HJK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.