Veikkausliiga title race 2026: who will win the league?
Finland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: HJK (39%), Inter Turku (36%), KuPS (26%). 60 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJK | 28 | 51 | 5855–61 | 39% | 9 from 4 (2.25/game) |
| Inter Turku | 28 | 52 | 5855–62 | 36% | 8 from 4 (2.00/game) |
| KuPS | 28 | 51 | 5754–61 | 26% | 9 from 4 (2.25/game) |
Below 1%: Gnistan, AC Oulu, VPS, Lahti, TPS, Ilves, SJK, Jaro, Mariehamn.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 12 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).