KuPS vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
DWLLW
DDWWWThe score model made a KuPS win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KuPS 1.63 – 1.33 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS win | 44.3% | 41.9% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.4% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HJK win | 31.2% | 30.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 54.4% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 33.3% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 58.3% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 36.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KuPS 35.7 / HJK 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open KuPS vs HJK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.