Jaro vs SJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
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WDLLDThe score model made an SJK win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jaro 1.12 – 1.74 SJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaro win | 24.4% | 27.5% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 27.0% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| SJK win | 51.5% | 45.6% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 51.1% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 30.2% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 55.5% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 35.1% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jaro 28 / SJK 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jaro vs SJK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.