Ilves vs Lahti
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
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WDLWWThe score model made an Ilves win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ilves 1.43 – 1.13 Lahti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 43.6% | 40.5% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Lahti win | 29.7% | 33.3% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 58.9% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 37.9% | -12.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 62.2% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 40.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ilves 35 / Lahti 25.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ilves vs Lahti in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.