AC Oulu vs Gnistan
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
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WDDLLThe score model made a Gnistan win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.35 – 1.51 Gnistan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 33.8% | 40.8% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 27.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Gnistan win | 41.0% | 31.6% | +9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 52.1% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 31.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 56.6% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 35.2% | -5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 36 / Gnistan 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AC Oulu vs Gnistan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.