VPS vs AC Oulu
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-08 · 17:00 CET
WLLLW
LLWLWThe score model made a VPS win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.59 – 0.99 AC Oulu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 51.3% | 45.1% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| AC Oulu win | 23.3% | 27.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 48.1% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 27.7% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 52.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 32.9% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 35.4 / AC Oulu 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open VPS vs AC Oulu in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.