TPS vs SJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-08 · 17:00 CET
WDWDD
WDLLDThe score model made a TPS win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: TPS 1.47 – 1.04 SJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPS win | 47.0% | 35.9% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| SJK win | 26.5% | 36.9% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 55.0% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 34.1% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 58.5% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 37.6% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: TPS 18.9 / SJK 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open TPS vs SJK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.