TPS vs SJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-09-08 · 19:00 CET
WDWDD
WDLLDThe score model makes a TPS win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: TPS 1.47 – 1.04 SJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPS win | 47.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 26.5% | — | — |
| SJK win | 26.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: TPS 19 / SJK 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.