Harju JK Laagri vs Flora
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-21 · 17:00 CET
LWDWW
DWWLLThe score model makes a Flora win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Harju JK Laagri 1.24 – 1.91 Flora.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harju JK Laagri win | 25.8% | — | — |
| Draw | 19.9% | — | — |
| Flora win | 54.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.3% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Harju JK Laagri 43.6 / Flora 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.