Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-09 · 18:00 CET
LLLDD
LWDWWThe score model made a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parnu JK Vaprus 1.65 – 1.28 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 47.5% | 39.5% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 25.6% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 31.0% | 34.9% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 61.6% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 41.5% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 63.8% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.4% | 43.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parnu JK Vaprus 49.5 / Harju JK Laagri 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.