Harju JK Laagri vs Tammeka
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
LLWDW
LWLLWThe score model made a Harju JK Laagri win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Harju JK Laagri 1.79 – 1.31 Tammeka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harju JK Laagri win | 50.0% | 41.5% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.5% | 25.6% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Tammeka win | 29.4% | 32.9% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 63.5% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 44.2% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 65.3% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.6% | 44.4% | +6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Harju JK Laagri 41 / Tammeka 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.