Kuressaare vs Narva
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
DWLLD
LLDLDThe score model made a Kuressaare win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kuressaare 1.40 – 1.07 Narva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare win | 45.8% | 31.6% | +14.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 28.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Narva win | 30.3% | 40.3% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 50.3% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 30.4% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 54.4% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 35.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kuressaare 49.8 / Narva 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.